itsbeautifuloutside

UEFA Euro 2012 Preview

Don’t you just love international football tournaments? I do.

When I worked I’d schedule leave so I wouldn’t miss a match. Made a bit of a cock up in 1994 - spent the first week of the World Cup staying at a villa in Crete. Greece were playing too. When they played everyone switched on their TVs and there were power cuts. Fortunately a restaurant in town had a generator so we watched all the Greece matches there. They lost all their games without scoring a single goal!

In recent years I’ve written previews and match reports for my contacts in “the football family” and this time round Channers has agreed to publish my musings on the IBO.

First thing I learned about enjoying international competitions is not to believe all the pro-England hype. Of course I’d love England to do well. In Italy in 1990 and at Euro 96 (where I attended 11 matches) we had a real chance of winning but were thwarted by the Hun. Surely they’ve paid us back for 1966 by now!

The quality of international football has risen dramatically down the years. When I was a lad Scotland and Eire would regularly qualify – even Wales got to Sweden in 1958. These days the home nations rarely get a sniff as the balance of football power has shifted away from the UK.

The World Cup still produces mismatches as Asian or African sides come up against Old World or South American nations but this gap is rapidly closing. The Euros on the other hand rarely produce one sided matches. I’ll accept that Greece’s 2004 winning side were not the most exciting to watch but there is no denying they were superbly coached and remarkably effective.

So what can we expect this summer in Eastern Europe’s first major football tournament? Click on the group tabs to find out.

Spot51

Originally published, 6th May 2012

Group A Preview

Poland

Greece

Russia

Czech Republic

Hosts Poland are joined by Greece (them again?) and former Soviet Bloc chums, Russia and the Czech Republic.

Poland’s best years were in the 70s and 80s when they finished 3rd in 2 World Cups but their record in the Euros shocking, rarely qualifying for the final stages. Their current squad play mainly in Poland or Germany with other exiles in France, Belgium and Turkey also likely to feature. There are few household names in Poland’s squad – best known in the UK are Arsenal goalkeepers Szczesny and Fabianski and Celtic’s Pawel Brozek. As hosts it is difficult to assess their form. Their friendlies have often been against second rate opposition but a 2-2 draw with Germany and 0-2 against Italy are probably the most interesting.

Poland will be up for this. They are proud people and will want to put on a good show. It would be good for the competition if they were to survive to the knock-out stages. Their progress will also be interesting for England fans – both Poland and Ukraine are in our qualifying group for Brazil 2014.

Greece must be doing something right. They qualified, unbeaten, at the top of a group including the highly rated Croatians. Most of their players are home based – Panathinaikos and Olympiakos provide the bulk of their team. The only UK based Greek is Samaras of Celtic.

Who knows which Greeks will turn up? It may be the rubbish ones who routinely fall at the first hurdle. Or could it be the lethally efficient game-killers who sweep all before them. Time will tell.

Russia, for a big country that loves football, has seriously underperformed in World Cups. Their record in Euros has been far better, particularly in the early years when they were champions once and runners up 3 times. Indeed, they were 3rd in 2008 so cannot be written off in 2012. They also topped their qualifying group, a home defeat by Slovakia being the only blemish on their record. Russian football is awash with money these days so most top Russian players are with Russian clubs. Indeed the only exile likely to play for then this summer is Fulham’s Pavel Pogrebnyak. He certainly knows his way around a penalty area.

My gut (which is significant) tells me Russia will be decent this summer. I’m expecting them to top Group A.

The Czech Republic are one half of a great footballing nation. Since the split with Slovakia, the Czechs have certainly done better than their neighbours. They’ve qualified for all the Euros, coming 2nd in 96 and 3rd in 04. They qualified this time as runners-up to Spain and pushing Scotland into 3rd place (who can forget the Scots’ notorious 4-6-0 formation that failed so abysmally in Prague?) They made short work of beating Montenegro in the play-offs. Most of their squad play abroad with Peter Cech and Tomas Rosicky the best known in the UK. A number of Czechs ply their trade in the Bundesliga and of the home based players, most are with Viktoria Plzen and will therefore have recent CL experience. The Czechs are probably the team most likely to prevent Poland going further in the competition.

Group B Preview

Holland

Germany

Portugal

Denmark

Here we have those old comrades Holland and Germany along with Portugal and Denmark.

Holland came through their qualifying group with 9 wins and a single defeat – away in Sweden after they’d already qualified. Often described as “the best team never to have won the World Cup” Holland can at least point to their 1988 European Championship victory in the Olympic Stadium, Munich. Gullit and Van Basten were the real deal back then. Their current crop of players contested the 2010 WC Final but were thwarted in their attempt to kick the Spaniards off the park. I doubt there’ll be many in the Dutch squad who aren’t well known to English fans. Even those who play abroad (Van Bommel, Boulahrouz, Sneijder, Huntelaar, Robben and Co) are well known on these shores. Premier league keepers Vorm and Krul should both make the squad.

Holland are the seeded team in this group. If Van Persie is given the ammunition expect him to fire them a very long way in Euro 2012.

Germany qualified imperiously on 30 points from 10 matches and their history in international tournaments (13 major finals) stands comparison with the very best. Recent friendlies have included wins over Holland and Brazil – but a home defeat by France shows they are not invincible. The current crop of players are almost entirely home based. Should old man Klose not make the squad and Mertesacker’s ankle rule him out the only foreign based Germans may be Ozil, Khedira and now Podolski. Several German internationals will contest the CL final for Bayern in Munich.

Fortunately the draw has Germany and Holland meeting in the 2nd group match. Hopefully that should see them go at each other hammer and tongs. Will be one of the early highlights of Euro 2012 but I expect both to progress to the serious bit.

Portugal may be a small nation but they love their football. Their first serious foray into international competition saw Eusebio and Co finish 3rd in 1966. Thirty years later their “golden generation” rather underperformed in Euro 96 but Portugal’s best results followed in the next decade. With Figo, Rui Costa and their ilk no longer playing the current squad is made up largely of Spanish based players. Meireles, Nani and the apparently “well hung” Ronaldo are their best known players in the UK. Qualification for Euro 2012 came via the playoffs where they beat Bosnia.

On their day and with Ronaldo having a good day, Portugal might upset anyone. If they do so against Germany or Holland it will be a major event.

Denmark pulled off one of the major shocks in 1992. Serbia were flung out of the competition and Denmark installed in their place. Their footballers were recalled from holiday beaches to play in Sweden – and they only went and won it. They have never threatened a repeat but easily qualified for Euro 2012, topping a group including Portugal. Sorensen, Schmeichel and Lindegaard may be Denmark’s keepers joining Premier league regulars Bendtner and Agger in a squad which will contain several home based players.

Denmark have no major stars but their team will be difficult to beat.

Germany and Holland should progress from Group B.

Group C Preview

Spain

Italy

Ireland

Croatia

Spain, Italy, Ireland and Croatia contest group C.

Spain, the current World and European champions, were recently described as “Barcelona without Messi”. Despite this, the current Spanish side ended decades of underperformance by lifting those trophies and remain warm favourites to win this summer. You probably know as much as me about the Spanish squad. Most are indeed from Barca, a few from Real Madrid and other Spanish sides. There may be 4 UK-based players in the squad – Reina, Silva, Mata and Torres.

I can’t see them not negotiating this group.

Italy is my favourite country so I’m extremely biased when it comes to anything Italian. The Azzurri are among the giants of the world game, indeed their record in World Cups (4 titles) is rather better than the Euros (just the 1). I’ve watched football in various countries but none comes close to the passion surrounding Italian Calcio. World Cup winners in 2006, Italy safely qualified for Euro 2012. Their current squad is largely home based, Juventus boasting most current internationals. A number of major players have retired recently so it remains to be seen how well the new generation of Italian footballers perform.

Ireland put their unfortunate failure to qualify for the last World Cup behind them by defeating Estonia in the play-offs after finishing behind Russia in their group. Almost all their squad play in the UK – Aiden McGeady (Spartak Moscow) and Robbie Keane (LA Galaxy) being notable exceptions.

They’ll be brave and well organised but unlikely to beat either Spain or Italy.

Croatia also qualified via the play-offs “stuffing Turkey” after finishing second behind Greece. They have a long, albeit Yugoslavian, football history and still produce technically gifted footballers. Modric and Kranjcar, Klasnic and Jelavic should all be there this summer together with several Croats now plying their trade in the Bundesliga. No doubting their ability – can their coach produce a team to compete with Europe’s best.

Can’t see them troubling Spain. Their best chance may be against Italy.

So Spain should progress. I hope Italy join them in the knock-out stages but will wait till I’ve watched them before nailing my colours to the mast.

Group D Preview

Ukraine

Sweden

France

England

Ukraine, Sweden, France and ENGERLUND!

Ukraine, as co-hosts, did not need to qualify so we must look at their friendlies for some guide to form. They’ve played lots and most decent sides have beaten them – only a 3-3 home draw with Germany stands out. Since independence Ukraine have never qualified for the Euros and been to just one World Cup when Schevchenko was playing. Almost all their current squad are home based with Shaktar and Dinamo Kiev providing the majority of the players.

Wish them luck but it would be a major achievement for them to progress beyond this group.

Sweden is a footballing nation that often punches well above its weight. Despite never winning an international competition they are serial qualifiers; this time they beat Holland in their final game to become “best runners up” thereby avoiding the play-offs. Sweden’s league relies on players at either end of their careers, so the bulk of their 2012 squad will comprise overseas based Swedes. It will include the UK based Olssen brothers and Seb Larsson. It is also possible that Anders Svensson may make the squad. I’m still waiting for Ibrahimovic to fulfil his potential but hope it is not against England.

Organised; tough to beat; but have Sweden the flair to go beyond the group?

Pound for pound, French footballers are as good as any anywhere in the world. They consistently develop world class talent and their record in international tournaments marks them out as a major football nation. They topped their qualifying group despite a home defeat by Belarus and have won all their important friendlies. The squad will be a mix of home grown and overseas players and most are household names in the UK. France under-perform when their heads aren’t right but Laurent Blanc seems to have this bunch of players pulling in the same direction. They are serious contenders to win Euro 2012.

And so to England…

Every football fan has a view on why we are never as good as we think we should be and blame everything from individual players, to coaching, to dilution of our playing stock by foreign imports, etc. etc. The simple truth is we are what we are. We are a medium sized football nation for whom quarter-finals are the benchmark and semi-finals represent a great achievement. The change of manager and the uncertainty over who may be fit - or suspended – almost gives us an advantage this year. The ludicrous hype over what England “ought to do” may, for once, be toned down.

I haven’t the foggiest idea who will turn out against France on Monday 11th June - I expect England will lose that one but do enough against Sweden and Ukraine to finish 2nd in the group.

So the easy prediction is to say Spain will win again. David Villa being fit would make that a more compelling argument. The usual suspects will be there or thereabouts – Germany, Holland and my tip, France, should all do well.

I’ll be writing reports on the tournament throughout the competition. My hope for Euro 2012 is fairly simple – I just want to watch some good football, please.